Moving on with our detailed rankings, today a look at the race for Best Actor. I posted quite a bit for each picture yesterday, so today's writeups will probably be a bit shorter. Anyway, to the rankings:
1. Sean Penn, Milk
In a normal year Sean Penn would be running away with this. He's beloved by the Academy, plays a biographical role, and goes outside of his "comfort zone" in it--a sure shoe-in. However, despite this year's accepted lack of film greatness, fantastic acting hasn't been in short supply. So, while I think Penn's probably running slightly ahead at this point, it's really anybody's race. True, Penn is has won the most precursors so far (ten, including LAFCA and NYFCC), but he just won a few years ago for Mystic River. Is the Academy going to reward him so soon after, when they know he's capable of similar performances in the future? Perhaps not, and that seems to be the major stumbling block for Penn's chances. Well, that and the fact that Penn has taken to "pallin' around" with such notable luminaries as the Castro brothers and Hugo Chavez--something to which the Academy probably doesn't take kindly.
Anyway, while Rourke (and, to a lesser degree, Langella) probably won't repeat their acting successes anytime soon, Penn certainly will. There will be plenty of chances to reward him in the future--why take this honor away from Rourke? Still, that's mostly a superficial criticism, and it's not clear if the Academy would actually act on that instinct. If Penn's performance is the best of the year, as many say it is, doesn't he deserve the statue? Probably, but who's to say? The Golden Globes should set a definite frontrunner, as most of the probably Oscar nominees are all nominated for Best Actor (Drama) at the Globes and, perhaps even more importantly, the SAG Awards. They have a good predicative history--so perhaps this race can't really be handicapped until they each weigh in.
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Having not yet seen this film, I can't comment on whether Rourke deserves all the praise that's been heaped upon him, but the critics seem to think so. In many ways, the "resurrection" theme of The Wrestler runs parallel to Rourke's own acting career--something that will both help and hurt him. In terms of the pros, everybody loves an underdog story. And if Rourke returning to the world of film and winning an Oscar isn't an "underdog story," then what is? After his breakthrough role in 1982's Diner, all his acting promise seemed unfulfilled... until now. However, his relative lack of action in the meanwhile could end up hurting him. The Academy is usually a merit-based society, so you really have to earn your Oscar worthiness. Rourke's performance may well be the best of the year, but after so many years of disrespect towards the field 0f acting, can he just waltz back on the scene and take an Oscar? Many of the stodgier voters will probably say no--but then again, they will probably be voting for Frank Langella anyway. Like with Penn, the upcoming Globes and SAG Awards should shed some much-needed light on the race as it stands, but all that's known right now is that Rourke's #2 could just as easily be #1.
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
My editorializing about the film aside, there seems to be no role more overhyped this year than Frank Langella's Richard Nixon. He hasn't won many precursors, the film hasn't been a box office success, and besides--he just played this same role on Broadway two years ago. Yet he won a Tony for his performance then, so wouldn't the next logical step be an Oscar? The problem is that Langella doesn't offer much of a unique spin on his role. It seems the only way he wins is if the younger voters split between Penn and Rourke, leaving a plurality of the older voters to vote for Langella. They won't identify with films about Harvey Milk or a wayward wrestler, but Richard Nixon? That's their bread and butter. Langella has remained in the top three for pretty much all of Oscar season, and there's no real danger of him losing that precious spot. But he can't really rely on the vote-splitting strategy; it's too risky, and doesn't it even do his role a disservice? Universal's campaign on his behalf has been strong, but he needs to start showing some precursor clout. Without that, he'll probably be stuck in the #3 rut right through February 22nd.
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
For a largely unknown actor in a film that came out last April, Richard Jenkins' rise to an assumed nomination has been nothing short of miraculous. He's even gotten some precursor love, and is nominated right along with the Penn-Rourke-Langella troika for Best Actor at the SAG Awards, though not at the Golden Globes. But, even if he does end up getting nominated--which is pretty likely--there's no real chance he walks away with the statue. The strength of this year's field is so top-heavy, that anybody outside the big three won't really have a chance to get in. There are some years in which the assumed greatness is kind of spread out over five or six performances (of which only five can obviously get nominated), however this isn't one of those years. Jenkins would probably have an oustide shot if that were the case; but unless there's some major vote-splitting, with Jenkins as a de facto consensus nominee, he'll probably be lucky just to be nominated--however not even that is a foregone conclusion.
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
What does Brad Pitt have to do to get an Oscar nomination? You would think that one of the acting world's biggest stars would be rife with Academy glory by now, but he only has one Supporting Actor nomination to his name--and that's it. This film, however, could change that. By taking on a more serious role than his norm, Pitt has proven he's maturing, something the Academy will surely like. Being the leading actor in a film which is a sure Best Picture nominee also doesn't hurt, but that too is a new field for Pitt. Many feel that he was unfairly snubbed for The Assassination of Jesse James last year, so this nomination could be a way of making up for that. However, Pitt spends much of Button CGI'ed up--so while he himself is on screen for most of the film, his natural self doesn't appear for the first hour. It's still Pitt acting, but the more traditional voters probably won't quite see it as obviously as that. He probably deserves this spot, but the lack of competition in the top three nominations make a free-for-all in the final two a reality that probably doesn't suit Pitt well. Still, his film has done better than DiCaprio or Eastwood's, and he has gotten nominated for both the SAGs and the Globes, so he does stand as as strong of a 5th place contender as one can be.
#6-10:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
As I opined yesterday, this is the film that should be sweeping all the categories--however, with this one as an exception. It certainly doesn't help Leo's chances that this film is the big disappointment of the season, but that doesn't change the fact that he's one of the most promising young actors around. He was nominated in 2004 for The Aviator and in 2006 for Blood Diamond, and his meaty role this time around should be carrying him to a nomination and a win, but the field is much too strong for that. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see him nominated again, but that's all that would happen--a win just doesn't seem to be in the cards.
7. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
After a win at the National Board of Review, Clint's stock surged. However, since then, he has fallen off a bit--mostly thanks to (again) the strength of the top three, combined with the lackluster response to his film. He's freakin' Clint Eastwood, so a nomination isn't out of the question at all. And while he may be a Best Picture/Director Oscar god, he's never won an acting award, and that would certainly be a nice way to help cap off his career. But in any case, it would have been nice to see him collect some precursors after the NBR--which was a whole month ago.
8. Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
He's been nominated seven times--winning twice--however hasn't been treated to a nomination since 1995, for Wag the Dog. While his performance this time around has been well received, the film itself has made little impact. However, he has the Golden Globes Best Actor (Musical or Comedy) category all to himself, so a win wouldn't mean he's better liked than any of the six above names, but it would indicate at least some approval of his role. In the end, while a nomination would be a nice story, it probably isn't going to happen. Still, it's Dustin Hoffman, and it has been a while....
9. Josh Brolin, W.
The only cast member of No Country For Old Men to go completely unnoticed by everybody and their dog, many people feel that Brolin deserves some belated recognition for that performance. However, that acknowledgement will more likely than not come in the form of a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Milk. While Brolin's role as our embattled presidnt was well received, the film was not, and its October release date ensured it would be swallowed by both the early release "indie" films and the late release big studio films. Don't count on this one happening.
10. Benicio del Toro, Che
What in God's name happened with this film? Touted to be the biopic of the year, its ever-changing release date, unwieldy length, and eventual limited release to a total of about five people doomed it. I'm sure del Toro was very good in his role, but his film's complete lack of buzz put this one in the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" category. The fact that he won't be nominated isn't a reflection of his performance, but rather a reflection of the film's enthusiasm (or lack thereof).
Tomorrow the DGAs... and Best Director (with a possibly Best Picture update if something truly shocking happens)!
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Spotlight on... Best Picture (1/6/2008)
So as you perhaps noticed, yesterday I posted rankings for the top eight races in the upcoming Oscars. To fill the other days of the week, I will also be posting an analysis of each race on each day. Best Picture (Tuesday), Best Director (Wednesday--but this week Thursday), Best Actor (Normally Thursday--this week Wednesday), Best Actress (Friday), Best Supporting Actor/Actress (Saturday), and Best Original/Adapted Screenplay (Sunday). Obvious, as with this week, there is some room for deviation if something out of the ordinary is afoot--this week it's the Directors Guild awards, whose nominations come out on Thursday. But today, we'll look at the state of the Best Picture race, ranking by ranking.
1. Slumdog Millionaire [My rating: B+]
I know it's not really my job to editorialize here (well, I suppose it is?) but this picture is wholly undeserving of Best Picture. It was charming, sure, but it is in no way high art, and doesn't feature any outstanding acting performances (more on that in a minute). That said, it is undeniably the frontrunner at this point in the race. It has won nine precursor awards (with Milk and WALL-E tied for second place with three apiece), has gotten almost unanimously good reviews, and has become the "popular" pick among critics and prognosticators alike.
That all said, while its chances of getting nominated are as close to 100% as you can get, its chances of winning are not. Yes, it is the frontrunner right now, but it isn't running away with it at all. The most glaring obstacle that stands in its path is the lack of outstanding acting. Actors make up a significant portion of the the voting populace for Best Picture, and the fact that only one of Slumdog's actors--Dev Patel, in a classic case of Supporting Actor category fraud--is even in contention is worrisome. If he doesn't get the nomination, this would be the first film since 2003's Return of the King to win the top prize without any acting nominations. The film before that? 1995's Braveheart. We have to gauge how solid Slumdog's support is by waiting on the SAG, PGA, and Globes to announce their winners. Until then, Slumdog Millionaire and its chances are looking quite good--if only tenuously.
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [My rating: TK]
I have not seen this yet, so I can't pass judgment yet. But from the trailers, and word of mouth, this is about as Oscar-y is it gets. An adapted story of epic lengths featuring top actors and wonderful artistic and technological values. Yet... something's just not right. Maybe it's the 72% on Rotten Tomatoes; maybe it's the lack of precursor wins; maybe it is the length (two+ hours for a story not about very much?). Whatever it is, it's clear that Benjamin Button--the frontrunner for quite some time, has fallen a bit from its perch. All this film was going on for months and months was a nice trailer and Brad Pitt. When it was released, quite late in the game (12/25), everybody just seemed... mollified. Not ecstatic, not overly praising, just... contented.
What it does have going for it, that Slumdog definitely does not, is acting power. It has one good bet nomination under its belt (Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress), and Pitt and Blanchett are certainly in the mix for their own awards (Best Actor and Actress). Even if the latter two don't get nominated, the attachment of Oscar royalty to the project helps immeasurably. To be able to win, though, it needs to win over the producers and non-actors as well. It's getting nominated for almost every precursor, but has only won one: the St. Louis Film Critics Association. It needs to win at least one of the PGA, SAG, or Golden Globes--and a DGA triumph of Fincher over Boyle wouldn't hurt either. If that happens, it may regain its place at the top of the Best Picture heap. Until then, however, it just can't get overtake Slumdog Millionaire.
3. Milk [My rating: A-/A]
If anybody had any doubts that Sean Penn is a master of his craft, they need look no further than this picture. But leaving praise for Mr. Penn aside until tomorrow, this movie has basically done what it needed to. It opened to rave reviews and praise for its top three actors, and has sat comfortably in the #3 position for quite some time now. The lack of a Golden Globe nomination surely dealt it a blow, but the feeling right now is that the top three are far enough ahead of the others that even that didn't signal anything close to a death knell for this film. Instead, it seems that its content is keeping it alive. Its timely political content (w/r/t Proposition 8), if only by accident, has made it super-relevant. Once again with the acting, Sean Penn is virtually guaranteed yet another Best Actor nomination, with Josh Brolin following suit for Best Supporting Actor and James Franco hoping to join him.
Its most distinctive quality, however, is the fact that it's a biopic--a doubled edged sword in Oscarland. While the Academy theoretically loves biopics, recent history sort of says otherwise. Since 2001, eight biographical films have been nominated for Best Picture, with only one (A Beautiful Mind in 2001) actually winning. Biopics clean up in the acting categories, but rarely do they take it all the way to win Best Picture. The oustanding quality of Milk may set it above the pack of other biopics but, despite winning three precursors including the New York Film Critics Circle, it has failed to stand out. While the upcoming "important" precursors should give us some indication of Milk's future, this race is still seeming like a two-horse race between Slumdog and Button. Milk is probably the only other film that has a shot at winning, so to live up to that possibly potential it has to start winning--and fast.
4. Frost/Nixon [My rating: C+/B-]
For the life of me I'll never understand why it's a foregone conclusion that this underwhelming effort from Ron Howard will get a Best Picture nomination. The acting, while good, was nothing special; the film was historically incorrect, as has been groused over many times; and, once again, the content just wasn't that good--though I seem to be one of the only people with that opinion. It has 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, Frank Langella is well on his way to a Best Actor nomination, and yet, like with Milk, it's struggled to really distinguish itself. In this case, however, there seems to be more of a concrete reason: the presence of Doubt, the other adapted play. Now, the story of Nixon is much more Oscar-friendly than the story of potential pedophile priests, but that doesn't mean there aren't a good deal of voters who will put Doubt #1 and leave Frost/Nixon off entirely--or vice-versa.
While the top three films are almost assured nominations, this fourth spot is the place at which things get much dicier. Despite getting nominated for all the precursors, it has only won the Las Vegas Film Critics Society, and any other wins would be huge upsets. Despite being on the top five shortlist for months now, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see it get snubbed. One of the entrenched nominees usually gets bumped off the final list. Frost/Nixon seems like the only top contender that doesn't have a strong base of support--if it gets nominated, it probably will on the strength of a lot of second, third, and fourth place votes. To ensure it gets a spot, it has to earn some first place votes. Balloting ends on January 12th, so whether that happens has probably already been decided. We'll have to wait until January 22nd to find out if it did.
5. The Dark Knight [My rating: B/B+]
Speaking of overrated films.... Look, it's good, but Best Picture-worthy? Probably not. Heath Ledger is well-deserving of at least a Best Supporting Actor nomination (though again, he too was a bit overrated), but that doesn't automatically mean the picture was great. First with the cons: it's too long, the screenplay is less-than-good, and, really, it's nothing more than a standard superhero film (a position with which all the TDK fanboys and -girls will surely take issue). What it is, however, is highly enjoyable and an artistic wonder. The bold pick was that it was going to miss out on the PGA in favor of WALL-E, thereby ensuring a dead heat for this final spot, but TDK seems to have moved back into a slight lead. Like with Frost/Nixon and Doubt, it seems that only one of The Dark Knight and WALL-E will get a nomination.
The one thing TDK doesn't have, however, is a Golden Globe nomination. That probably won't pose much of a problem for Milk, but The Dark Knight is hanging on by the skin of its teeth--and the lack of a SAG nomination doesn't help matters one bit. If Slumdog, Button, or Frost/Nixon wins the Best Picture (Drama) award, then The Dark Knight is probably safe. But if Revolutionary Road or (less likely) The Reader shakes things up by winning, then it's anybody's ballgame. Going into that scenario, however, The Dark Knight holds a palpable--albeit slim--lead.
And now, short(er) blurbs about #6-10:
6. Revolutionary Road [My rating: TK]
It had all the buzz, all the great qualities that make a Best Picture-winning film, but... it just fizzled. Critics responded to its opening with an unanticipated "meh...." It may not have exceeded, or even met, expectations, but that doesn't mean it's out of the race. Its biggest plus is the much heralded reunion of the Titanic duo: Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. Winslet is almost assured a nomination for Best Actress, while DiCaprio, is struggling. Films have ridden that kind of star power to a Best Picture nomination before, and it could certainly happen here. Don't be fooled by the lack of enthusiasm: this is making a subtle resurgence, and a win at the Globes this weekend could just be the jolt this film needs to show the chattering class that it was never actually out of it.
7. WALL-E [My rating: A]
What a great story it would have been for this to get a PGA nomination. For a while it looked like the little robot could score an upset over the villainous Joker, but alas it was not to be. Still, PGAs or not, this film has certainly proven its worth. It's one of the most--if not the most--heralded films of the year, and has an incredibly strong base of support who will put it #1. Its lack of a Golden Globe nomination is due to the fact that animated films are not allowed to be nominated for Best Picture there, nor at the DGAs. Still, it won the all-important Los Angeles Film Critics Association, as well as comparable organizations in Boston and Chicago. While the Best Animated Feature "ghetto" might be enough to keep WALL-E out of Best Picture, don't be surprised if it pulls off the huge upset.
8. Doubt [My rating: A-]
It's the ultimate actors film, so why hasn't it gotten any Best Picture love? While three of its four top actors are as close to sure nominations as you can get (Streep, Hoffman, and Davis, with Adams lagging behind), that still hasn't been nearly enough to get this serious Best Picture consideration. It edged out The Dark Knight for a SAG nomination, but that's it. Still, a good number of Best Picture voters are actors--who are much more likely to like this film than non-actors--so we could be surprised. If Frost/Nixon starts to slip for whatever reason, Doubt is the natural replacement. Barring that, or an SAG upset, its chances of a nomination are quite slim... unfortunately.
9. The Wrestler [My rating: TK]
Besides Micker Rourke's assured Best Actor nomination, and Darren Aronofsky's potential Best Director nomination, this doesn't have much going for it. Sure it's considered one of the top films of the year--earning an astounding 98% on Rotten Tomatoes--but it got caught up in the December bottleneck, and has been lost in the Benjamin Button hype. If Aronofsky gets a DGA nomination, then this would probably move up the list, but that seems unlikely. The Wrestler will probably have to be satisfied with nominations for acting (Rourke and maybe Tomei), Original Screenplay, and Song. Picture, however, might be too difficult to attain.
10. The Reader [My rating: TK]
There's no real chance of this happening, except it got a Golden Globe nomination and Rachel Getting Married didn't, so here we are. Buzz is good for Kate Winslet to net a nomination for Supporting Actress, but the fun stops there. An Adapted Screenplay nomination is also probably in the cards, but that's not enough to vault it over the previous nine better reviewed, more lauded films. Besides, Winslet's already in contention for Revolutionary Road. If Best Picture voters are going to reward her for a film, it's much more likely to be that.
Tomorrow... Best Actor! All comments are encouraged in the comments section. Have at it!
1. Slumdog Millionaire [My rating: B+]
I know it's not really my job to editorialize here (well, I suppose it is?) but this picture is wholly undeserving of Best Picture. It was charming, sure, but it is in no way high art, and doesn't feature any outstanding acting performances (more on that in a minute). That said, it is undeniably the frontrunner at this point in the race. It has won nine precursor awards (with Milk and WALL-E tied for second place with three apiece), has gotten almost unanimously good reviews, and has become the "popular" pick among critics and prognosticators alike.
That all said, while its chances of getting nominated are as close to 100% as you can get, its chances of winning are not. Yes, it is the frontrunner right now, but it isn't running away with it at all. The most glaring obstacle that stands in its path is the lack of outstanding acting. Actors make up a significant portion of the the voting populace for Best Picture, and the fact that only one of Slumdog's actors--Dev Patel, in a classic case of Supporting Actor category fraud--is even in contention is worrisome. If he doesn't get the nomination, this would be the first film since 2003's Return of the King to win the top prize without any acting nominations. The film before that? 1995's Braveheart. We have to gauge how solid Slumdog's support is by waiting on the SAG, PGA, and Globes to announce their winners. Until then, Slumdog Millionaire and its chances are looking quite good--if only tenuously.
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [My rating: TK]
I have not seen this yet, so I can't pass judgment yet. But from the trailers, and word of mouth, this is about as Oscar-y is it gets. An adapted story of epic lengths featuring top actors and wonderful artistic and technological values. Yet... something's just not right. Maybe it's the 72% on Rotten Tomatoes; maybe it's the lack of precursor wins; maybe it is the length (two+ hours for a story not about very much?). Whatever it is, it's clear that Benjamin Button--the frontrunner for quite some time, has fallen a bit from its perch. All this film was going on for months and months was a nice trailer and Brad Pitt. When it was released, quite late in the game (12/25), everybody just seemed... mollified. Not ecstatic, not overly praising, just... contented.
What it does have going for it, that Slumdog definitely does not, is acting power. It has one good bet nomination under its belt (Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress), and Pitt and Blanchett are certainly in the mix for their own awards (Best Actor and Actress). Even if the latter two don't get nominated, the attachment of Oscar royalty to the project helps immeasurably. To be able to win, though, it needs to win over the producers and non-actors as well. It's getting nominated for almost every precursor, but has only won one: the St. Louis Film Critics Association. It needs to win at least one of the PGA, SAG, or Golden Globes--and a DGA triumph of Fincher over Boyle wouldn't hurt either. If that happens, it may regain its place at the top of the Best Picture heap. Until then, however, it just can't get overtake Slumdog Millionaire.
3. Milk [My rating: A-/A]
If anybody had any doubts that Sean Penn is a master of his craft, they need look no further than this picture. But leaving praise for Mr. Penn aside until tomorrow, this movie has basically done what it needed to. It opened to rave reviews and praise for its top three actors, and has sat comfortably in the #3 position for quite some time now. The lack of a Golden Globe nomination surely dealt it a blow, but the feeling right now is that the top three are far enough ahead of the others that even that didn't signal anything close to a death knell for this film. Instead, it seems that its content is keeping it alive. Its timely political content (w/r/t Proposition 8), if only by accident, has made it super-relevant. Once again with the acting, Sean Penn is virtually guaranteed yet another Best Actor nomination, with Josh Brolin following suit for Best Supporting Actor and James Franco hoping to join him.
Its most distinctive quality, however, is the fact that it's a biopic--a doubled edged sword in Oscarland. While the Academy theoretically loves biopics, recent history sort of says otherwise. Since 2001, eight biographical films have been nominated for Best Picture, with only one (A Beautiful Mind in 2001) actually winning. Biopics clean up in the acting categories, but rarely do they take it all the way to win Best Picture. The oustanding quality of Milk may set it above the pack of other biopics but, despite winning three precursors including the New York Film Critics Circle, it has failed to stand out. While the upcoming "important" precursors should give us some indication of Milk's future, this race is still seeming like a two-horse race between Slumdog and Button. Milk is probably the only other film that has a shot at winning, so to live up to that possibly potential it has to start winning--and fast.
4. Frost/Nixon [My rating: C+/B-]
For the life of me I'll never understand why it's a foregone conclusion that this underwhelming effort from Ron Howard will get a Best Picture nomination. The acting, while good, was nothing special; the film was historically incorrect, as has been groused over many times; and, once again, the content just wasn't that good--though I seem to be one of the only people with that opinion. It has 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, Frank Langella is well on his way to a Best Actor nomination, and yet, like with Milk, it's struggled to really distinguish itself. In this case, however, there seems to be more of a concrete reason: the presence of Doubt, the other adapted play. Now, the story of Nixon is much more Oscar-friendly than the story of potential pedophile priests, but that doesn't mean there aren't a good deal of voters who will put Doubt #1 and leave Frost/Nixon off entirely--or vice-versa.
While the top three films are almost assured nominations, this fourth spot is the place at which things get much dicier. Despite getting nominated for all the precursors, it has only won the Las Vegas Film Critics Society, and any other wins would be huge upsets. Despite being on the top five shortlist for months now, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see it get snubbed. One of the entrenched nominees usually gets bumped off the final list. Frost/Nixon seems like the only top contender that doesn't have a strong base of support--if it gets nominated, it probably will on the strength of a lot of second, third, and fourth place votes. To ensure it gets a spot, it has to earn some first place votes. Balloting ends on January 12th, so whether that happens has probably already been decided. We'll have to wait until January 22nd to find out if it did.
5. The Dark Knight [My rating: B/B+]
Speaking of overrated films.... Look, it's good, but Best Picture-worthy? Probably not. Heath Ledger is well-deserving of at least a Best Supporting Actor nomination (though again, he too was a bit overrated), but that doesn't automatically mean the picture was great. First with the cons: it's too long, the screenplay is less-than-good, and, really, it's nothing more than a standard superhero film (a position with which all the TDK fanboys and -girls will surely take issue). What it is, however, is highly enjoyable and an artistic wonder. The bold pick was that it was going to miss out on the PGA in favor of WALL-E, thereby ensuring a dead heat for this final spot, but TDK seems to have moved back into a slight lead. Like with Frost/Nixon and Doubt, it seems that only one of The Dark Knight and WALL-E will get a nomination.
The one thing TDK doesn't have, however, is a Golden Globe nomination. That probably won't pose much of a problem for Milk, but The Dark Knight is hanging on by the skin of its teeth--and the lack of a SAG nomination doesn't help matters one bit. If Slumdog, Button, or Frost/Nixon wins the Best Picture (Drama) award, then The Dark Knight is probably safe. But if Revolutionary Road or (less likely) The Reader shakes things up by winning, then it's anybody's ballgame. Going into that scenario, however, The Dark Knight holds a palpable--albeit slim--lead.
And now, short(er) blurbs about #6-10:
6. Revolutionary Road [My rating: TK]
It had all the buzz, all the great qualities that make a Best Picture-winning film, but... it just fizzled. Critics responded to its opening with an unanticipated "meh...." It may not have exceeded, or even met, expectations, but that doesn't mean it's out of the race. Its biggest plus is the much heralded reunion of the Titanic duo: Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. Winslet is almost assured a nomination for Best Actress, while DiCaprio, is struggling. Films have ridden that kind of star power to a Best Picture nomination before, and it could certainly happen here. Don't be fooled by the lack of enthusiasm: this is making a subtle resurgence, and a win at the Globes this weekend could just be the jolt this film needs to show the chattering class that it was never actually out of it.
7. WALL-E [My rating: A]
What a great story it would have been for this to get a PGA nomination. For a while it looked like the little robot could score an upset over the villainous Joker, but alas it was not to be. Still, PGAs or not, this film has certainly proven its worth. It's one of the most--if not the most--heralded films of the year, and has an incredibly strong base of support who will put it #1. Its lack of a Golden Globe nomination is due to the fact that animated films are not allowed to be nominated for Best Picture there, nor at the DGAs. Still, it won the all-important Los Angeles Film Critics Association, as well as comparable organizations in Boston and Chicago. While the Best Animated Feature "ghetto" might be enough to keep WALL-E out of Best Picture, don't be surprised if it pulls off the huge upset.
8. Doubt [My rating: A-]
It's the ultimate actors film, so why hasn't it gotten any Best Picture love? While three of its four top actors are as close to sure nominations as you can get (Streep, Hoffman, and Davis, with Adams lagging behind), that still hasn't been nearly enough to get this serious Best Picture consideration. It edged out The Dark Knight for a SAG nomination, but that's it. Still, a good number of Best Picture voters are actors--who are much more likely to like this film than non-actors--so we could be surprised. If Frost/Nixon starts to slip for whatever reason, Doubt is the natural replacement. Barring that, or an SAG upset, its chances of a nomination are quite slim... unfortunately.
9. The Wrestler [My rating: TK]
Besides Micker Rourke's assured Best Actor nomination, and Darren Aronofsky's potential Best Director nomination, this doesn't have much going for it. Sure it's considered one of the top films of the year--earning an astounding 98% on Rotten Tomatoes--but it got caught up in the December bottleneck, and has been lost in the Benjamin Button hype. If Aronofsky gets a DGA nomination, then this would probably move up the list, but that seems unlikely. The Wrestler will probably have to be satisfied with nominations for acting (Rourke and maybe Tomei), Original Screenplay, and Song. Picture, however, might be too difficult to attain.
10. The Reader [My rating: TK]
There's no real chance of this happening, except it got a Golden Globe nomination and Rachel Getting Married didn't, so here we are. Buzz is good for Kate Winslet to net a nomination for Supporting Actress, but the fun stops there. An Adapted Screenplay nomination is also probably in the cards, but that's not enough to vault it over the previous nine better reviewed, more lauded films. Besides, Winslet's already in contention for Revolutionary Road. If Best Picture voters are going to reward her for a film, it's much more likely to be that.
Tomorrow... Best Actor! All comments are encouraged in the comments section. Have at it!
Monday, January 5, 2009
First 2008 (2009?) Predictions
Just to hold you over for the time being, here are my predictions for the "Big 8" awards for the upcoming Oscars (we'll call them the 2008 Oscars from now on, just to make life easier). With the release of the PGA nominees this morning, it seems that the Best Picture top five just got more solidified, but we still await the Writers Guild and DGA nominations--which are coming on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
Best Picture:
1. Slumdog Millionaire [My rating: B+]
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [TK]
3. Milk [A-/A]
4. Frost/Nixon [C+/B-]
5. The Dark Knight [B/B+]
...
6. Revolutionary Road [TK]
7. WALL-E [A]
8. Doubt [A-]
9. The Wrestler [TK]
10. The Reader [TK]
Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
3. Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
5. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
...
6. Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
7. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
8. Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
9. Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
10. Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Best Actor:
1. Sean Penn, Milk
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
...
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
7. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
8. Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
9. Josh Brolin, W.
10. Benicio Del Toro, Che
Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, Doubt
2. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
3. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
4. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
5. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
...
6. Angelina Jolie, Changeling
7. Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
8. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
9. Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
10. Michelle Williams, Wendy & Lucy
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt 3. Josh Brolin, Milk
4. Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
5. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
...
6. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
7. James Franco, Milk
8. Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married
9. Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
10. Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis, Doubt
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
4. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
5. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
...
6. Kate Winslet, The Reader
7. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
8. Amy Adams, Doubt
9. Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
10. Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth
Best Original Screenplay (Just top 5 now...):
1. Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
2. Rachel Getting Married (Jenny Lumet)
3. WALL-E (Andrew Stanton)
4. Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
5. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)
Best Adapted Screenplay (Ditto):
1. Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth & Robin Swicord)
3. Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
4. Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)
5. The Reader (David Hare)
Best Picture:
1. Slumdog Millionaire [My rating: B+]
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [TK]
3. Milk [A-/A]
4. Frost/Nixon [C+/B-]
5. The Dark Knight [B/B+]
...
6. Revolutionary Road [TK]
7. WALL-E [A]
8. Doubt [A-]
9. The Wrestler [TK]
10. The Reader [TK]
Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
3. Gus Van Sant, Milk
4. Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
5. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
...
6. Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
7. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
8. Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
9. Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
10. Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Best Actor:
1. Sean Penn, Milk
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
...
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
7. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
8. Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
9. Josh Brolin, W.
10. Benicio Del Toro, Che
Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, Doubt
2. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
3. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
4. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
5. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
...
6. Angelina Jolie, Changeling
7. Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
8. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
9. Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
10. Michelle Williams, Wendy & Lucy
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt 3. Josh Brolin, Milk
4. Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
5. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
...
6. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
7. James Franco, Milk
8. Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married
9. Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
10. Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis, Doubt
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
4. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
5. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
...
6. Kate Winslet, The Reader
7. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
8. Amy Adams, Doubt
9. Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
10. Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth
Best Original Screenplay (Just top 5 now...):
1. Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
2. Rachel Getting Married (Jenny Lumet)
3. WALL-E (Andrew Stanton)
4. Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
5. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)
Best Adapted Screenplay (Ditto):
1. Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth & Robin Swicord)
3. Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
4. Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)
5. The Reader (David Hare)
Welcome
Hello all. Welcome to "Future Oscars," a blog covering future Academy Awards ceremonies. Okay, so the title's a bit of a misnomer--technically the ceremony happening at the end of next month, honoring 2008 in film, is a future Oscars ceremony. And yes, this blog will cover Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Benjamin Button, and all those other movies--but it will also cover next year's ceremony!
For now, there are mostly just going to be predictions for next month's ceremony, with 2009 talk sprinkled in. But once that envelope rips open at ~10:55pm EST on February 22, everything will shift to next year. So welcome, and stick around because I'll try to update this regularly.
For now, there are mostly just going to be predictions for next month's ceremony, with 2009 talk sprinkled in. But once that envelope rips open at ~10:55pm EST on February 22, everything will shift to next year. So welcome, and stick around because I'll try to update this regularly.
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